Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

Vietnam is one of the fastest-growing countries in the world, and its economy has shown resilience to trade wars and slower growth rates in neighbouring China. This accelerated economic pace is due to labour shifting from agriculture to manufacturing and services, private investment, a strong tourist sector, higher wages, and accelerating urbanization. Exports constitute an increasingly significant contribution to Vietnam's GDP, and certain sectors such as industrial production, textiles, electronics, and seafood production have been growing rapidly. According to preliminary government data, Vietnam's economy grew by 7.09% in 2024, reaching USD 476.3 billion, accelerating from 5.05% in 2023, driven by strong exports and robust foreign investment inflows. Growth is projected to reach 6.5% in 2025 and 2026, driven by sustained export expansion and improved investor and consumer confidence, although bank asset quality remains a concern amid increasing non-performing loans (World Bank).

As per the latest government projection, Vietnam's 2024 state budget revenue was projected to surpass USD 79.24 billion, 19.1% above the estimate, while expenditure was expected to reach 1.83 quadrillion VND. By year-end, public debt stood at 36-37% of GDP, government debt at 33-34%, and debt repayment at 20-21% of state budget revenue, remaining within the National Assembly's limit. Vietnam's external debt composition remains advantageous, with the majority of debt owed to bilateral and multilateral sources. This structure results in a reduced external debt service burden and bolsters its high external liquidity ratio (Fitch). Over the forecast period, the government is expected to maintain a tight fiscal policy, particularly as the economy returns to a higher growth trajectory. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.63% in 2024 and is forecasted to decrease to 2.6% by 2026 (World Bank).

Vietnam's unemployment rate was 2.24% in 2024, down 0.04 percentage points from 2023, according to the GSO. Urban unemployment stood at 2.53%, while rural areas recorded 2.05%. The jobless rate among those aged 15-24 rose to 7.83%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. By the end of 2024, the workforce aged 15 and above reached 53 million, an increase of 575,400 from the previous year. Over the last decade, poverty declined impressively, dropping from 16.8% to 3.9% and is now below pre-pandemic levels (World Bank). Lastly, the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 16,193 in 2024 by the IMF.

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