Uzbekistan: Economic and Political Overview
Uzbekistan has been implementing ambitious market-oriented economic reforms, which had a positive impact on the country's economy. In 2023, the government adopted the National Development Strategy 2030, with the goal of becoming an upper-middle-income country by the end of the decade. Uzbekistan's economy demonstrates resilience against spillovers from the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions, maintaining growth rates that rank among the highest in the CIS region. Real GDP growth in 2024 was strong at 6.5% (from 6.3% one year earlier), driven by robust domestic demand. The external current account deficit narrowed by 2.6 percentage points to 5.0% of GDP, supported by strong remittances, high commodity prices, rapid growth in non-gold exports, and a reduction in the one-off import surge from 2023. Growth is expected to stay strong, though external uncertainty has risen recently. Global tariff hikes have heightened uncertainty and tightened financial conditions, potentially impacting Uzbekistan through external demand, commodity prices, and financial flows. Despite these challenges, real GDP growth is projected to remain around 6% in 2025 and 2026, supported by sustained private consumption, investment, and ongoing structural reforms (data IMF).
Concerning public finances, in 2024, the consolidated government deficit decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 3.2% of GDP, mainly due to reduced energy subsidies and better-targeted social spending. Higher gold prices helped offset lower VAT revenues from increased VAT refunds. However, the decline in domestic demand from the smaller deficit was offset by higher public sector spending, including from SOEs, supported by an increase in the external borrowing ceiling. The government is expected to achieve its fiscal deficit target of 3% of GDP in 2025, continuing its fiscal consolidation efforts, including an additional round of energy subsidy reductions planned for mid-2025. By the end of Q4 2024, Uzbekistan's national debt reached USD 40.2 billion, or 35% of GDP, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Of this, USD 33.7 billion (84%) was external debt, with USD 17.9 billion raised at a fixed interest rate and USD 15.64 billion at variable rates. Domestic debt stood at nearly USD 6.5 billion, up from USD 5.9 billion at the start of the year, with USD 5.1 billion raised at a fixed interest rate and USD 1.2 billion obtained interest-free. The government is expected to stay within its borrowing limits of USD 5.5 billion, with public debt falling below 33% of GDP by 2027. Meanwhile, headline inflation in 2024 peaked at 10.6% in June, mainly due to essential energy tariff hikes. However, low food inflation helped offset the overall impact, with CPI inflation moderating to 9.8% in December before rising again to 10.1% by February 2025. A 50 basis point interest rate cut to 13.5% in July 2024 was countered by a 50 basis point increase in March 2025 as inflation remained high. As per the World Bank’s outlook, headline inflation is projected to decrease to 9% in 2025, gradually reaching the inflation target of 5% by 2027.
According to the Ministry of Poverty Alleviation and Employment of Uzbekistan, the unemployment rate among the working-age population has decreased from 10.5% in 2020 to 6.8% by the end of 2024. According to Coface, however, more than half of employment is in the informal sector. Moreover, the overall economic growth and increased urbanization in recent years contradict the persisting poverty. The upper middle-income poverty rate fell from 13.4% in 2023 to 10.9% in 2024 (USD 6.85/day, 2017 PPP), driven primarily by increased employment and growth in household agriculture and business income. Lastly, the IMF estimated the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) at USD 11,704 in 2024.
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 101.58 | 112.65 | 127.41 | 141.22 | 155.44 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 2,820 | 3,051 | 3,379 | 3,669 | 3,955 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 32.5 | 34.3 | 32.8 | 31.4 | 30.7 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 5.7 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 6.8 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -7.80 | -7.08 | -7.80 | -7.80 | -7.97 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -7.7 | -6.3 | -6.1 | -5.5 | -5.1 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
Uzbekistan has a workforce of 13.97 million out of its 35.65 million population (World Bank, latest data available). Although only 9% of the country’s land is considered arable, agriculture plays a major role in the economy, accounting for 20.6% of GDP and employing 13.9% of the total workforce. The main agricultural products include cotton, wheat, barley, rice, maize, potato, vegetables, fruits, and livestock. The country also produces silk and wool and is attempting to diversify its agriculture towards fruits and vegetables. According to the Statistics Agency, the total value of agricultural, forestry, and fisheries products/services in 2024 amounted to UZS 467 trillion. Crop and livestock farming, hunting, and related services comprised 96.6% of the total, while forestry accounted for 2.5% and fisheries for 0.9%. By the end of 2024, growth in the sector was driven by a 3.1% increase in crop and livestock farming, hunting, and associated services, along with a 3% rise in forestry.
The industrial sector accounts for 30.6% of GDP and employs 27.9% of the total workforce (World Bank). Manufactured products included textiles, food processing, machine building, metallurgy, mining, hydrocarbon extraction, and chemicals. Uzbekistan boasts the world's fourth-largest gold reserves and holds the twelfth position globally and second among the CIS countries in terms of mining. Metallurgy stands out as one of the nation's largest domestic industries, with copper, gold, silver, and uranium being the most extensively mined minerals. The oil and gas sector serves as a primary pillar of Uzbekistan's GDP, contributing substantially to its budget revenues, foreign exchange earnings, and industrial production framework. Additionally, it plays a crucial role in attracting investment to the country. Uzbekistan holds the position of the second-largest natural gas producer in Central Asia and is recognized for its substantial hydrocarbon reserves. In 2024, the industrial sector’s value-added rose by 6.8%, driven mainly by growth in mining and quarrying (1.9%), manufacturing (7.7%), utilities (5.4%), and waste management services (5.6%). Construction activity increased by 8.8% compared to 2023, with building and structure construction up 105.5%, civil engineering works up 124.7%, and specialised construction works up 106.4% (data from the Statistics Agency).
The services sector accounts for 43.9% of GDP and employs 58.2% of the total workforce (World Bank). Key services include transportation and tourism. In 2024, the country welcomed 10.2 million foreign tourists, generating USD 3.5 billion in revenue—a 1.5-fold increase from 2023—driven by strong growth from key markets such as China (+80%), Italy (+50%), India (+60%), and Germany (+20%). Domestic tourism also thrived, with 22.7 million visits recorded under the ‘Travel Around Uzbekistan!’ initiative. Uzbekistan's banking sector represents around 69.7% of the country's GDP. The dominance of large state-owned and state-controlled banks persists within the sector, with only five such banks managing 61% of all assets in the banking sector (data OECD). By the end of 2024, the services sector grew by 7.7%, reaching UZS 657.3 trillion in gross value added. Trade rose by 11.5%, accommodation and food services by 10.7%, transport and storage by 8.5%, and information and communication by 24.7%. Retail trade made up 56.1% of trade value-added, while transport and storage accounted for 5.4% of GDP, led by road transport (55.7%). Information and communication contributed 2.7% to the economy, with telecommunications services making up 35% of its value. ICT services represented 2.4% of GDP, driven by telecoms (38.2%) and IT services (43.3% - data from the Statistics Agency).
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 13.9 | 27.9 | 58.2 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 20.6 | 30.6 | 43.9 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 4.1 | 6.2 | 7.3 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
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Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
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Latest Update: May 2025
