flag Tajikistan Tajikistan: Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

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Tajikistan is a lower-middle-income, mountainous country with an economy based mainly on mineral extraction, metal processing, agriculture and the remittances of citizens working abroad. The last twenty years saw steady growth and, although at a slower pace, the economy continued to grow even amid the global COVID-19 crisis (+4.5% in 2020). The IMF estimated growth at 5% in 2021, thanks to an increase in private and public consumption. For 2022, the IMF forecasts growth at 4.5%, followed by 4% in 2023, albeit the conflict in Ukraine may represent a downward risk as expatriate remittances (25% of GDP) from Russia will probably be negatively affected.

The country has a structural budget deficit which widened to 4.4% in 2021 amid reduced revenues and increased spending for social assistance and healthcare. Expenditures are expected to increase in 2022, in particular for the financing of social programmes to address rising poverty. Coface expects the budget deficit to reach 5% of GDP in 2022. Public, external and foreign currency debt was estimated at around 49.3% of GDP for 2021, with the main creditor being China’s Eximbank (40% of the total). For 2021-2023, the Asian Development Bank supplied USD 323 million in grants. The debt-to-GDP ratio should follow a downward trend over the forecast horizon (48.1% this year and 47.6% in 2023 - IMF). Foreign exchange reserves should remain at around USD 2 billion (covering around eight months of imports and half of the total debt). Meanwhile, the increase in imports combined with a rise in world food prices fuelled inflation, which stood at 8% last year and should stabilize around 6.5% in 2022-23.
 Overall, the private sector’s role in the economy remains limited, contributing to only 13% of formal employment and 15% of total investments (World Bank). The country’s economy is quite balanced, with agriculture representing 23.8% of GDP, and industry and services having a similar share (32.8% and 35.3%, respectively – World Bank).

The population is relatively poor in Tajikistan. Since independence, the country has made enormous progress in reducing poverty: between 2000 and 2018, poverty dropped from 83% to 27.4%, according to the World Bank’s latest figures. Some 6.9 million people, including 2.8 million children, require support due to high malnutrition rates, inadequate access to water and hygiene, disruptions to learning, exacerbated poverty and heightened protection risks. Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a growing share of the population has reported reducing their food consumption, and the inability of previously returned migrants to travel abroad led to a significant increase in the unemployment rate, estimated at 7.6% by the World Bank.

 
Main Indicators 201920202021 (e)2022 (e)2023 (e)
GDP (billions USD) 8.128.00e8.108.769.30
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 7.5e4.55.04.54.0
GDP per Capita (USD) 873e844e839890929
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 44.151.3e49.348.147.6
Inflation Rate (%) 7.8e8.68.710.010.5
Current Account (billions USD) -0.190.340.16-0.17-0.18
Current Account (in % of GDP) -2.34.21.9-1.9-1.9

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database - October 2021.

Note: (e) Estimated Data


 
Monetary Indicators 20162017201820192020
Tajikistan Somoni (TJS) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 GBP 10.5811.0012.2111.8813.23

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

Main Sectors of Industry

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 44.7 15.8 39.5
Value Added (in % of GDP) 23.8 32.8 35.3
Value Added (Annual % Change) 8.8 9.2 2.3

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
Socio-Demographic Indicators 20212022 (e)2023 (e)
Unemployment Rate (%) 0.00.00.0

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database - Latest available data

 

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The Active Population in Figures

201820192020
Labour Force 2,322,5532,327,4782,329,165

Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database

 
201720182019
Total activity rate 42.84%42.14%41.47%
Men activity rate 53.43%52.87%52.28%
Women activity rate 32.23%31.41%30.66%

Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.

Score:
55,2/100
World Rank:
134
Regional Rank:
29

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 
 

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.

 

Indicator of Political Freedom

Definition:

The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.

Ranking:
Not Free
Political Freedom:
7/7

Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House

 

Indicator of Freedom of the Press

Definition:

The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).

World Rank:
162/180

Source: World Press Freedom Index, Reporters Without Borders

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Sources of General Economic Information

Main Online Newspapers and Portals
Tajikistan Newspapers and News Sites
Tajikistan Newspapers online
BBC News - Tajikistan
Tajikistan News
Useful Resources
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Economic Development and Trade
National Bank of Tajikistan
 
 

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Latest Update: May 2022

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