Equatorial Guinea: Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

Due to diminishing oil reserves and reduced investment, Equatorial Guinea's oil-dependent economy has shrunk for over a decade. From 2013 to 2023, the country experienced an average annual negative growth rate of 4.2%. Despite two years of recovery, the economy slipped back into recession in 2023, with an estimated real GDP growth rate of -5.8% (down from 3.8% in 2022). This downturn was primarily driven by a decline in the hydrocarbon sector (with a 19.3% contraction in 2023H1 compared to 2022H2), while decreased investment also played a role in the demand-side contraction. Equatorial Guinea is projected to stay in recession in 2024, with growth forecasted at -4.3%, primarily due to diminishing hydrocarbon production and domestic demand. Without substantial diversification endeavors and advancements in structural reforms, the economy is expected to be adversely affected by declining hydrocarbon production and reduced commodity prices, resulting in an average negative growth of 3.5% in 2025-2026 (data World Bank).

The overall fiscal surplus is estimated to have decreased to 7.3% of GDP in 2023 from 13.0% in 2022, while the non-oil fiscal balance in 2023 reached 26.4% of GDP, compared to 21.3% in 2022. The debt-to-GDP ratio declined in 2023. From 2019 to 2023, CFAF 572.2 billion (or 9.5% of GDP) out of the CFAF 1,382.5 billion outstanding arrears was paid to construction companies. As of August 2023, outstanding domestic arrears with construction companies amounted to 7.9% of GDP. The fiscal balance is expected to shift to deficits in 2025-2026, as cuts in public expenditure will be insufficient to offset the substantial decrease in hydrocarbon revenues. Inflation is estimated to have decreased from 4.9% in 2022 to 2.4% in 2023. This decline is attributed to containment measures by the BEAC, agreements to import food products from Serbia, and reductions in some import tariffs. According to the national institute of statistics, the prices of food products increased by 7.1% between March 2020 and September 2023, resulting in an average loss of household purchasing power of 4.5%. The World Bank expects inflation to pick up to 4% in 2024. To safeguard macroeconomic stability, promote inclusive growth, and fight corruption, the authorities need to implement reforms, which include accelerating privatizations, approving anti-corruption regulations, strengthening banking sector stability, safeguarding social spending, and improving public financial management (IMF).

Despite a high GDP per capita attributed to oil operations (estimated at USD 17,620 PPP in 2022 by the World Bank – the country being classified as upper-middle-income), Equatorial Guinea still records an alarming level of poverty, with a large share of the population still lacking access to clean water and healthcare. According to World Bank estimates, the unemployment rate reached 8.5% in 2023 (from 8.6% one year earlier).

Monetary Indicators	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
CFA Franc BEAC (XAF) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 GBP	737.93	762.70	768.84	753.93	774.97

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

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Latest Update: October 2025