Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

Heavily reliant on oil revenues, the Republic of Congo's real GDP contracted by an average of 1.9% per year from 2015 to 2023, resulting in a cumulative 32% decline in income per capita (World Bank). The economic downturn began with the fall in oil prices between 2014 and 2016, further worsened by cuts in public spending and the accumulation of domestic arrears, which ultimately led to a reduction in private investment. The COVID-19 pandemic prolonged the recession, bringing GDP per capita down to levels not seen since the early 1970s. After growing 2% in 2023, economic activity expanded an estimated 2.6% last year as non-hydrocarbon sector growth (3.1%) outpaced that of the hydrocarbon sector (0.8%). Strong private consumption and investment drove activity in forestry, manufacturing, and telecommunications, supporting overall non-hydrocarbon growth. However, ongoing operational challenges continue to affect oil production in the hydrocarbon sector (IMF).

The fiscal surplus decreased to 2.8% of GDP in 2024 and is expected to decline further to 1.9% in 2025-2026, primarily due to a projected drop in oil prices. Increased social spending and capital expenditure are likely to negatively affect the budget surplus; however, new investments in oil equipment and fields could boost production and help maintain the fiscal surplus. Congo's debt-to-GDP ratio remains high (at around 93.3% in 2024, from 99% one year earlier), posing fiscal risks, but is projected to decline to 86.6% in 2025-2026, thanks to recent reforms (IMF). In October 2024, the government exchanged 53% of its outstanding domestic bonds, representing 25% of domestic debt, extending maturities while keeping coupons and principals unchanged. Fitch classified this exchange as a distressed debt exchange (DDE) aimed at avoiding a traditional payment default. Inflationary pressures persisted in 2024, reaching an estimated 3.8% (down from 4.3% in 2023). The World Bank forecasts inflation to return within the BEAC target of 3% by 2025. Overall, to achieve resilient, sustainable, and inclusive growth, Congo needs to accelerate structural reforms and diversify its economy. This involves shifting away from reliance on hydrocarbons toward broader-based sectors like agribusiness, manufacturing, and tourism while fostering fair competition, improving governance, and reducing bureaucratic barriers to support a more business-friendly environment and create jobs (IMF).

Extreme poverty rose from 33.5% in 2015 to 46.6% in 2022, erasing earlier gains in poverty reduction. According to World Bank estimates, the poverty rate edged up slightly to 46.8% in 2024 but is projected to decline to an average of 46.0% in 2025–2026. The unemployment rate was estimated at around 19.9% in 2023, with the informal sector playing a prominent role, engaging about 80% of urban workers. Lastly, the country’s GDP per capita is very low, estimated at USD 6,403 in 2024 by the IMF (PPP).

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