Belarus: Economic and Political Overview
On February 24, 2022, Russia initiated a military conflict on the Ukrainian territory, dragging in Belarus as its ally facilitating the invasion of Ukraine, which profoundly upsets the current political context in these countries and will have substantial political and economic ramifications. For the ongoing updates on the developments of Russia-Ukraine conflict please consult the dedicated pages on BBC News.
Belarus is undergoing an economic transition, inheriting structural features from the former Soviet bloc. The country heavily relies on Russia, its largest trading partner, and to a lesser extent on Ukraine, whose economic and political situation has negatively influenced Belarus in recent years, particularly following the Russian invasion. In 2024, Belarus saw stronger-than-expected growth (estimated at 4% as per official governmental figures), due to robust consumer spending, rising investment activity, and heightened demand from Russia. Moreover, the government boosted domestic demand through administrative measures and expansionary policies. However, potential GDP remains constrained by sanctions and limited access to advanced technologies, despite efforts to spur investment. With Russia’s economy slowing and monetary policy tightening, Belarus’s overheated economy is expected to decelerate to 1.2% in 2025. Consumption will remain the main growth driver but at a slower pace due to a tight labour market, while investments will contribute positively but face monetary constraints. Net exports may weigh on growth due to market dependence and a challenging external environment (World Bank).
Since the financial crisis in 2011, Belarus's economy has been influenced by significant internal and external imbalances, heavily supported by loans from Russia. Consequently, the economy is vulnerable to external shocks and fluctuations in Russia's economic performance. The debt-to-GDP ratio stood at an estimated 41.4% in 2024, up from 40.7% the previous year, and is expected to remain relatively stable, at 40.3% in 2025 and 40.6% next year (IMF). Approximately one-third of the debt is held in foreign currencies, increasing risks associated with the depreciation of the Belarusian ruble. The government budget recorded a deficit of BYN 4.8 billion as per the Ministry of Finance. The country’s 2025 budget projects a deficit of BNY 4.5 billion (1.6% of GDP), with revenues of BNY 45.5 billion and expenditures of BNY 50 billion. Average annual inflation stood at 5.7% in 2024, slowing from 5.8% in 2023 and 12.8% the previous year.
Belarus exhibits relatively low levels of poverty and inequality, with a poverty rate of less than 1% in 2024 according to the latest figures from the World Bank (based on the upper-medium income poverty line). However, the country faces uneven progress in transitioning to a market economy and democracy, and the current economic and political crisis threatens to increase poverty levels. The unemployment rate stood at 3% last year and is projected to decrease by 0.1 percentage points in 2025, according to the IMF. However, in the medium term, inflation, a tight labour market, financial losses in enterprises, and a shift of resources to less productive sectors may reduce the effectiveness of economic stimulus measures.
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 71.79 | 73.13 | 76.87 | 80.27 | 83.74 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,822 | 8,008 | 8,460 | 8,878 | 9,308 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -1.3 | -2.0 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 40.7 | 41.4 | 40.3 | 40.6 | 39.9 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 5.0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 5.8 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -1.30 | -1.43 | -1.83 | -2.22 | -2.25 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -1.8 | -2.0 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -2.7 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2021
Belarus possesses several natural resources on its territory, including wood, minerals, small fields of oil and natural gas, granite, limestone, clay, sand, peat, and dolomite. Agriculture accounts for 7.3% of the country's GDP and employs 10% of the working population (World Bank, latest data available). The main agricultural products are beef, pork, poultry, milk, and cereals (including potatoes, vegetables, cucurbits, and seeds). Belarus is the world's third-largest producer of rye and flax fibre. The country is also among the largest exporters of butter, chicken, and cheese globally. Nearly 60% of agricultural production is concentrated in highly subsidized state-owned cooperative farms, inherited from kolkhozes, which formed the basis of the Soviet Union's agricultural policy. Belarusian agriculture heavily depends on the Russian market, to which it exports around 90% of its agricultural products. According to data from the National Statistics Committee, Belarusian agricultural output in 2024 totalled USD 11.1 billion, with agricultural organisations producing USD 9.07 billion, a 5.1% increase from the previous year. Moreover, food and agricultural raw material exports rose by 14.4%.
Industry contributes 32.5% of the country's GDP and employs around 31.1% of the active population. As a former country of the USSR, Belarus has a developed but ageing industrial base that is heavily subsidized. The main industries include machine tools, agricultural equipment, fertilizers, petroleum and chemical products, food products (including beverages and tobacco), prefabricated building materials, motor vehicles, textiles, and household goods equipment (such as refrigerators, watches, televisions, and radios). The manufacturing sector alone contributes 23% of the country’s GDP, with the manufacture of food products and coke and refined petroleum products accounting for a significant share. According to Belstat, in 2024, the volume of industrial production in current prices stood at BYN 202.4 billion, up by 5.4% compared to one year earlier. Production in the mining industry increased by 3.6%, and by 5.5%in the manufacturing sector.
The tertiary sector contributes 47.8% of GDP and has experienced significant growth since the break-up of the USSR, employing 58.9% of the working population. Key sectors include financial services, information technology, transportation, and tourism. Transport services, accounting for almost 42% of the country's total services exports and more than 50% of the balance of foreign trade in services, make up around 6% of GDP. Commerce is also a crucial economic sector, contributing substantially to the nation's GDP: in January-November 2024, retail trade totalled BYN 80.8 billion, up 11.8% as against the same period of last year in comparable prices. The tourism sector is mainly based on Russian visitors, who accounted for 80% of total foreign arrivals in 2024.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 10.0 | 31.1 | 58.9 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 7.3 | 32.5 | 47.8 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | -0.4 | 8.4 | 1.4 |
Source: World Bank, Latest Available Data. Because of rounding, the sum of the percentages may be smaller/greater than 100%.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.}}
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
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Latest Update: May 2025
